Gaza ceasefire talks resume in Doha, but ‘no breakthrough’ expected

Doha, Qatar – Israel’s Mossad spy chief and the CIA director have travelled to the Qatari capital, Doha, to attend the first high-level talks since ceasefire efforts aimed at ending the war in Gaza broke down in August.

David Barnea and William Burns are expected to meet Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani to try to revive talks after the killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar on October 16.

Families of captives taken from Israel to Gaza have also built pressure on the Israeli government to sign a deal to secure the release of their relatives.

Nearly 100 captives still remain in Gaza as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rebuffed talks and escalated military operations. He has faced months of protests demanding a deal to bring back the captives.

On Sunday, Israeli protesters interrupted him, shouting ‘”shame on you”, as he was speaking at a memorial for the victims of the October 7, 2023, attacks. At least 1,100 people were killed in the attacks led by Hamas.

The Qatari prime minister said his country has recently “re-engaged” with Hamas leaders in Doha since Sinwar was killed. Israel also killed the main Hamas negotiator Ismail Haniyeh in July while he was visiting Tehran.

Truce talks have repeatedly stalled over more than one year of war, which has killed nearly 43,000 Palestinians.

Hamas has been seeking a permanent ceasefire and wants the withdrawal of Israeli forces as part of any deal. But Netanyahu wants military control over parts of Gaza.

“As long as Israel sticks to its definition of success, there will be no peaceful release of hostages,” said Sultan Barakat, a professor of public policy at Qatar Foundation’s Hamad Bin Khalifa University and an honorary professor at the University of York.

“The careful calibration has sadly moved to avoiding the spread of a regional conflict as a result of the Israel and Iran confrontation and not to ending the genocide.”

‘Not ready to make any concessions’

On Sunday, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said military operations alone are not sufficient to achieve the country’s war goals.

“In carrying out our moral and ethical duty to return the hostages to their homes, painful compromises are required,” he said at a state ceremony to honour the soldiers killed in the conflict.

According to Israeli media, Barnea, the Mossad chief, is travelling with a commitment to “goodwill” but lacks a mandate regarding a change in the status of the Israeli takeover of the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors in Gaza. Netanyahu wants control of these two corridors – the Philadelphi on the border with Egypt and the Netzarim, which splits northern and southern Gaza.

Hamas sources said its demands are firm for a complete withdrawal of the Israeli military from the entire Gaza Strip, the release of Palestinian prisoners jailed in Israel, aid deliveries to all of Gaza and an end to the war.

Luciano Zaccara, an adjunct associate professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, said he isn’t “optimistic about a breakthrough”.

“Even though the Israeli delegation is here, they attacked Iran. So it seems they are not ready to make any concessions to any of their enemies. Israel has decided to push for a definitive military solution against Hamas,” he told Al Jazeera.

Egypt and Qatar have been mediating between Israel and Hamas, which led to the only breakthrough in November when a prisoner swap deal led to the release of about 100 Israeli captives in exchange for about 240 Palestinian prisoners.

Analysts said they believe this round of talks most likely will result in a holding pattern just days before the US elections.

In addition to a much trumpeted plan unveiled by US President Joe Biden in May, another proposal that includes a temporary ceasefire and aid deliveries in exchange for releasing several Israeli captives in Gaza is also being discussed.

Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s Shin Bet internal security service, already went to Cairo to discuss the proposal with Egyptian officials last week.

Egypt on Sunday proposed a two-day ceasefire in Gaza that would entail an exchange of four Israeli captives for some Palestinian prisoners.

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said on Sunday that talks should resume within 10 days of implementing the temporary ceasefire to try to reach a permanent one.

‘A PR exercise’

The new head of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service, Hassan Mahmoud Rashad, has already held a meeting with Hamas deputy chief Khalil al-Hayya in Cairo.

Before the talks, there was already opposition from Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The far-right leaders have called temporary proposals as “a gift to Hamas while Israel is in a momentum”.

But there are supporters of the proposal as the fighting has dragged on for more than a year and the pressure from the captives’ families is mounting.

Among the proponents of a deal to release some captives are Gallant, Transportation Minister Miri Regev, Foreign Minister Israel Katz and Deputy Prime Minister Yariv Levin.

According to Hamas officials who have visited Moscow recently, if an agreement is reached, two Israeli captives who are dual Russian citizens would be among the first to be released. But all of it depends on Israel’s willingness to temporarily stop its assault.

The situation in Lebanon after Israeli incursions and bombardments is most likely to also come up, but separate talks are being held for ending that conflict. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met acting Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati in London on Friday and called for the protection of civilian lives but stopped short of explicitly calling for a ceasefire. He has emphasised reaching understandings on the disarmament of Hezbollah.

According to Israeli media, the head of the Mossad has already told the CIA boss this week that any ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon must also include a deal for the release of captives in Gaza.

Noureddine Miladi, professor of media and communication at Qatar University, said the current negotiations whether in Qatar or in Cairo are unlikely to lead to any tangible results.

“In my opinion, it is mainly a PR exercise with no substantial results to alleviate the plight of the Palestinians or lead to the release of hostages,” he told Al Jazeera.

“All of these exercises of talks-for-show are nonsense. Things on the ground are going in just one direction, a total control of Gaza by Israel and the establishment of settlements” in the Palestinian territory.