Hope still exists for Turkey-PKK detente, despite deadly attack

Istanbul, Turkey – The sight of Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) walking across the floor of the Turkish parliament on October 1 and shaking hands with politicians from a pro-Kurdish party, DEM, was an unlikely one.

The MHP leader, a close ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been a vociferous opponent of Kurdish demands for more rights. He has referred to Kurdish politicians as “terrorists,” accusing them of links to the PKK, an armed group that is listed as a “terrorist organisation” by Turkey and the West. He also called for DEM’s predecessor to be banned.

The promise of new peace negotiations between Turkey and the Kurdish fighters who have waged a 40-year rebellion was called into question last month after an attack on an aerospace plant near the capital Ankara.

Bahceli later said his gesture was a “message of national unity and fraternity”.

Weeks later, he raised the possibility that PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who has been serving a life sentence since 1999, could be granted parole if he renounced violence and disbanded his organisation.

And then, the very next day on October 23, an attack on the TUSAS aerospace and defence company, which killed five people and left the two assailants dead, threatened to reverse the baby steps that had been taken.

TUSAS manufactures civilian and military aircraft, including unmanned drones that have been crucial in combating the PKK, which has fought a war against the Turkish state since the 1980s, as part of an effort to claim more autonomy for Kurds living in southeastern Turkey.

The PKK claimed responsibility for the TUSAS attack two days later. Its statement said the raid was not related to the latest “political agenda” but had been planned long before because TUSAS weapons “killed thousands of civilians, including children and women, in Kurdistan”.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), attend a Republic Day event to mark the republic’s 101st anniversary in Ankara, Turkey, on October 29, 2024 [Murat Kula/Presidential Press Office/Handout via Reuters]

‘Historic window of opportunity’

And yet, the attack may not be the death knell for the potential rapprochement as some initially feared. Instead, there seem to be elements of an underlying desire by both sides to push towards a solution to a protracted conflict that has killed tens of thousands.

DEM quickly made it clear that they opposed the TUSAS attack, condemning it and saying that it was “meaningful” that it took place “when Turkish society is talking about a solution and the possibility of dialogue is emerging”.

Even after the attack, Erdogan himself described the developments as an “unparalleled opportunity”.

While commending Bahceli’s “will to focus on the right path” in an October 30 speech, the president said, “Those who read the calls of the MHP chairman in this context see the historic window of opportunity.”

DEM is now reportedly trying to arrange a umum structure for peace negotiations involving senior figures from across the political parties.

Ibrahim Akin, a DEM Party MP, described Bahceli’s remarks about Ocalan as a “sign of a new era” and an indication of the government’s approach.

“However, there are still many things that are uncertain and cause hesitation,” he said. “We want a transparent process to be carried out in which all parties and all political actors are included.”

Supporters of the pro-Kurdish DEM Party display flags with a portrait of jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan during a rally to celebrate Newroz, which marks the arrival of spring, in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 17, 2024 [Umit Bektas/Reuters]

Rationale

Following the Ankara attack, Turkey launched a wave of air strikes against the PKK in Iraq and Syria.

The group has directed its operations in Turkey from northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains since the late 1990s. The Turkish military has severely curtailed PKK activity inside Turkey in recent years through the establishment of dozens of bases on the Iraqi side of the border and cross-border air strikes.

In northeast Syria, meanwhile, Turkey has also targeted the PKK-affiliated People’s Defence Units (YPG), which the United States has supported since 2015 in the fight against ISIL (ISIS), providing weapons and training. American support for the Kurdish armed group strained Turkey’s relations with the US.

While Turkey does not recognise any separation between the PKK and YPG, most Western states have declined to list the latter as a “terrorist” group. Speaking after the TUSAS attack, Erdogan said the two PKK assailants had crossed into Turkey from Syria, implicating the YPG.

Some commentators see the rationale behind the latest push for talks as Erdogan’s desire to amend Turkey’s current constitution, which would not allow him to run for office again unless early elections are called.

DEM – the third-largest party in parliament – could provide valuable backing.

“The ruling coalition will probably try to amend the constitution to remove Erdogan’s time limits,” said Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul’s Sabanci University. “They probably want to divide the opposition coalition and co-opt, if not directly the Kurdish political movement, then at least some Kurdish voters, particularly conservative Kurdish voters in southeastern Anatolia.”

The idea of a deal between the Turkish government under Erdogan and the PKK is not as far-fetched as it perhaps might first seem. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) made a strong effort in its early years in power in the 2000s to give more rights to Kurds in Turkey, who had long been a marginalised group. A peace process launched in 2013 appeared, at times, to come close to success before failing in 2015.

The current move also comes at a time of extreme turmoil in the Middle East. US support for Israel has reportedly unsettled Kurdish groups, including the PKK, which has historical ties to Palestinian armed groups. DEM is highly critical of Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

A second Donald Trump presidency would also likely see US troops pulled from Syria, removing protection for the YPG.

Esen said Turkey may be taking a “pre-emptive step to fill the political vacuum that is emerging in the Middle East” to “move forward in the region”.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director at the Ankara-based German Marshall Fund, said “favourable conditions, including regional actors preoccupied with other crises and the PKK’s weakened state, suggest an opportunity for progress”.

However, he questioned whether Ocalan, who has been held incommunicado in recent years, retains enough influence over the PKK to steer the process.

“Additionally, there are limits to what the Turkish public can tolerate when it comes to talks with the PKK and having Ocalan speak at the Turkish parliament remains outside of those limits,” Unluhisarcikli added.

A poll conducted by the Institute of Social Studies on October 24 found nearly three-quarters of respondents opposed Ocalan’s release. In a less scientific gauge of public reaction, football fans at a Fenerbahce match in Istanbul chanted insults about the PKK leader in the aftermath of the Ankara attack.