Mixed feelings in Lebanon as anticipation of a ceasefire builds

Beirut, Lebanon – The United States’s special envoy for the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, has landed in the Lebanese capital to hold talks around a potential ceasefire deal between Hezbollah and Israel.

This comes after an emotionally exhausting period for Lebanese as optimism and worry abounded.

Graphic designer Diana Younes told Al Jazeera she is close to despair and clutching at any hope.

“My God, Hochstein, stop this war and I don’t want more than that. Khalas! We are honestly so tired, but we say ‘Hamdella [Thanks be to God]’,” she said.

Ceasefire manoeuvres

Optimism over a deal was dampened then revived on Monday as Israel hit Beirut for the third time in two days and Axios reported Hochstein was not coming to Lebanon to talk about a deal as planned.

Then, it was reported Hochstein was leaving the US for Beirut after all.

At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cast a modicum of doubt that a ceasefire would lead to lasting peace in a speech in parliament on Monday.

“The important thing is not the piece of paper,” he told the Knesset. “To ensure security in the north, we have to take systematic action against Hezbollah attacks that could come … This is not only our reaction, but our ability to prevent Hezbollah’s ability to build up its power.”

A ceasefire would, in theory, allow thousands of people on both sides of the border to return to their homes.

The escalation over recent days is similar to Israel’s behaviour in Gaza, where it has increased the carnage whenever ceasefire discussions seemed close to a conclusion.

Leading up to Monday’s assaults on Beirut, Lebanese officials had been saying ceasefire talks were going well.

Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri spoke to media outlet Al Modon about the optimism.

“[US President-elect] Donald Trump gave the green light to Hochstein to [achieve a] ceasefire in Lebanon. Also, the Israelis, according to what we have been informed by the Americans, want to end the war.”

The positive anticipation was reiterated by Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in an interview with Al Araby TV on Monday.

Lebanon’s response to the US proposal was positive, Mikati said, adding that “some points need discussion” but “we hope to reach a ceasefire in Lebanon as soon as possible”.

Some people, like 26-year-old Lebanese executive chef Khodor Eido, are less than impressed with the government’s manoeuvres.

“I actually have no hope with the prospective ceasefire as both [Hezbollah] and Israel are escalating and running negotiations under fire. Moreover, the Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri is running the negotiations alone without going back and discussing it with the MPS that we elected, which makes it very obvious that something suspicious is happening.”

The terms of the ceasefire are not publicly available to prove or disprove Eido’s suspicions, but a prior paper circulated by media showed that Israel was demanding a blanket “US agreement” that it could act unilaterally against Hezbollah in Lebanon whenever it saw fit.

This term was seen as a serious point of contention and was reportedly rejected by Lebanon.

Despite the government’s optimistic messaging, some people in Lebanon are not sure all the negotiations will lead to results on the ground.

“Seeing what the Israeli government does … I think, if they sign something for a ceasefire, there would still be a point where Israel will hit Lebanon if they see irregular activity,” brand manager Joe Deeba said.

“So this point would never stop existing because the main objective of this war, the way I see it, is to end Hezbollah completely and never see this much power in Lebanon,” he added.

US special envoy Amos Hochstein landed in Lebanon on Tuesday morning [Thaier Al-Sudani/Reuters]

1701, redux?

While the Israelis rejected earlier attempts at a ceasefire, now may be the time for negotiations, with the Netanyahu government under increasing pressure internally from families who want to return to the north while Hezbollah has suffered losses to their military leadership.

“It is potentially the right climate for diplomacy because both sides want some way out of this,” Adel Abdel Ghafar, a fellow and director of the foreign policy and security programme at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said.

In recent days, Lebanese officials gave the impression that both parties are in agreement on most clauses, including Israel’s full withdrawal south of the Blue Line – a demarcation line dividing Lebanon from Israel and the occupied Golan Heights – and Hezbollah pulling back north of the Litani River as the Lebanese army deploys to fill the space between the two lines.

A similar deal was reached after the 2006 war, enshrined in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which Israel and Hezbollah both violated regularly.

Israel makes incursions into Lebanese airspace and Hezbollah maintained its armed wing and has deployed military infrastructure in south Lebanon.

Lebanon has said the Lebanese army will be deployed to south Lebanon after a ceasefire, with troop figures said to be in the 5,000 range to begin with.

One point of contention in ceasefire talks, according to various media reports, concerns the members of a ceasefire monitoring committee. The current committee reportedly includes Lebanon, Israel, UNIFIL, the US and France.

Israel reportedly proposed the inclusion of the United Kingdom and Germany on the committee, which was rejected by the Lebanese side of the negotiations.

The question remains as to who will act as enforcer over the Israelis.

A UN vehicle drives past destruction following an overnight air raid on the eastern entrance of the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on November 19, 2024 [Kawnat Haju/AFP]

The strikes on Beirut continue

Many in Lebanon are desperate for a ceasefire after more than a year of fighting has ravaged the country’s south.

Other areas, including Beirut’s suburbs, the southern city of Tyre and Baalbek in the east, have also been heavily bombarded.

Israel has killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon since October 2023. Most of the deaths have occurred since September when Israel began an escalated campaign of attacks across Lebanon. A couple of weeks later, Israeli troops invaded Lebanese territory.

Since then, Hezbollah has engaged Israeli forces along the southern border, while the two have traded attacks on each other’s territory. About 113 Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed since October 2023, according to The Times of Israel.

Lebanese officials claimed that Hezbollah had agreed to a ceasefire in late September, only for Israel to respond with the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. US officials then said a ceasefire was off the table.

The most recent talk of ceasefire came amid a relentless days-long of Israeli attacks around Lebanon.

Attacks came in Beirut’s southern suburbs, an area that has experienced devastation described by experts as “urbicide”, every few hours making it the most violent period for the area since at least 2006. The area was struck again twice early on Tuesday morning.