US election: 14 days left — What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to

With two weeks remaining in the US presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are racing to secure votes in key battleground states.

On Monday, Harris, the Democratic Party’s nominee, made stops in all three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which have traditionally voted for the party and were critical to the victories of the last two Democratic presidents.

At the same time, Trump, the Republican nominee, visited Asheville, North Carolina, where he is worried that the significant damage caused by Hurricane Helene could negatively affect the turnout in a race that surveys suggest is becoming closer by the day.

Here’s a look at what the polls say, the key highlights from campaigns over the previous day, and a look at what to expect next.

What are the latest updates from the polls?

Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck across the country’s seven battleground states that can swing in favour of either candidate, according to the latest survey of voters published on Monday by The Washington Post.

A poll by The Washington Post and Schar School, surveying more than 5,000 registered voters in the first half of October, showed that 47 percent are likely to support Harris and Trump each.

Among likely voters, 49 percent favour Harris compared with 48 percent for Trump.

The poll comes just as Trump’s average has nudged slightly ahead of Harris in the aggregate of surveys calculated by the website FiveThirtyEight, though the margin is so small that it remains a statistical tie.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker, as of October 21, Harris was leading in the national polls and had a 1.8 percentage-point lead over Trump.

But in the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada — which have a total of 51 votes in the 538-strong Electoral College — the two candidates are effectively tied, with less than half a percent separating them. If either Trump or Harris wins all four of these states, they are effectively guaranteed the presidency.

What’s Kamala Harris been up to?

Harris’s first stop on October 21 was Malvern, Pennsylvania with former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney. Speaking in front of a “Country Over Party” banner, Cheney — the daughter of former Vice President and Iraq war architect Dick Cheney — called on Republican voters unhappy with Trump to instead support Harris.

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Monday, Trump called Cheney “dumb as a rock” and a “war hawk”. The Cheneys are among the most high-profile Republicans to endorse Harris.

When asked why she was supporting Harris, Liz Cheney explained that it was crucial to stand behind a candidate who defended what she called the “most conservative” principle for conservatives: the US Constitution.

“You have to choose in this race between someone who has been faithful to the Constitution, who will be faithful, and Donald Trump,” Cheney said.

US Vice President Kamala Harris attends a conversation moderated by Charlie Sykes with former US Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) [Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]

Separately, Susan Ford Bales, the daughter of former Republican US President Gerald Ford, also endorsed Harris on Monday.

On Monday, Harris also admitted the campaign was affecting her. When asked in Michigan whether she sleeps, Harris responded: “I wake up in the middle of the night usually these days, just to be honest with you.”

But Harris said she tries to keep a routine: “I work out. I try to eat well, you know. I love my family, and I make sure that I talk to the kids and my husband every day.”

Meanwhile, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz appeared on ABC’s The View, a daytime talk show hosted by women, where he described some of Trump’s comments on using his presidential powers to go after critics as “the talk of dictators”. Walz also appeared on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart on Variety later on Monday.

If you stand for country, democracy, and the rule of law, our campaign has a place for you. https://t.co/3ebj7ky8NG

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 21, 2024

What’s Donald Trump been up to?

Trump spent the day in North Carolina – a swing state he has won twice, but where he is now locked in a close race with Harris, less than 1 percentage point ahead, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average as of October 22.

“To see that is incredible, the power of nature,” Trump said after seeing hurricane damage in Asheville along his motorcade route. “Nothing you can do about it. But you’ve comberan to get a better crew.” He then expressed his sympathies to the storm victims.

He repeated an incorrect claim that the federal government does not have enough money for hurricane victims because it is being used to help immigrants in the country illegally.

“They didn’t have any money left for North Carolina,” he said.

pic.twitter.com/igllXjOepF

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 21, 2024

Asheville suffered severe damage last month from Helene, with floods washing away roads, homes and bridges across a wide section of North Carolina.

Trump has accused Harris before of abandoning North Carolina and leaving hurricane victims “to drown”.

He also said — without evidence — that Democrats are trying to rig the 2024 election, maintaining — also without evidence — that the 2020 election he lost to President Joe Biden was marred by extensive voter fraud.

Trump said he intends to take no days off leading up to the November election. “I don’t want a day off. We have to win,” he added. When asked if he had observed any cheating incidents that made him doubt the fairness of the election, Trump replied, “Well, I haven’t.”

Donald Trump prays with Mike Stewart as he visits a site damaged by Hurricane Helene in Swannanoa, North Carolina [Reuters]

But both parties agree on something

Harris and Trump have one message in common, people need to go out to vote.

Trump took to his social media platform Truth Social to remind supporters in Michigan that it was the last day to register to vote in the state, while Democrats rallied people to vote in the US election in a post on X.

In North Carolina Trump also urged voters not to let the storm deter them from voting. “You must get out and vote.”

“Donald Trump knows to have a chance of winning back the White House he has to make sure his base turns out. He may not have convinced new voters, but he can’t lose support from those who always backed him,” Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher said, reporting from Greenville, North Carolina.

His supporters are also rallying for him as the election nears.

“I can tell you, if he doesn’t get in, this country is gone,” Kevin O’Carroll, a Trump supporter, said.

Early voting is under way in almost every state across the country just 14 days before election day, November 5.

MICHIGAN! Are you registered to vote?

The deadline is coming up soon!

Don’t miss out on the most pivotal election of our lifetime.

Visit https://t.co/vG0nP7EghA #TooBigToRig #SwampTheVote pic.twitter.com/4qnPvOZnNi

— Team Trump (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@TeamTrump) October 18, 2024

What’s next for the Harris and Trump campaigns?

Obamas set to join Harris on the campaign trail

On Tuesday, Obama is heading to Detroit in his latest attempt to excite voters about Harris.

The former president and his wife Michelle remain popular with the Democratic base.

Obama, who has been travelling through key battleground states, is scheduled to campaign with Harris on October 24 in Georgia. He faced some criticism following a recent event in Pennsylvania, where he challenged some Black men for not being open to the idea of a female president.

Michelle Obama will make her first campaign appearance of this election cycle on October 26 in Michigan, joining Harris.

Former US President Barack Obama speaks at a rally in Tucson, Arizona [File: Go Nakamura/Reuters]

On Tuesday, Trump will convene a roundtable of Latino business leaders in Miami and then return to North Carolina for the second straight day for a rally in the city of Greensboro.

“The Latino community knows that President Donald J. Trump is the only candidate who can bring prosperity back to America. That’s why they’ll turn out in record numbers on November 5th to vote for him,” his campaign website stated.

Trump, like his rival Harris, is also scheduled to be in Detroit this week, following his recent comments at the Detroit Economic Club on October 10, where he decried the state of the city. In his remarks, the former president stated that the US would become like Detroit if Harris were to be elected.

It was my Great Honor to host the 11th Hour Faith Leaders Meeting in North Carolina tonight—THANK YOU! pic.twitter.com/GDFXUWtxLq

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2024