US election: 4 days left – What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to

On Thursday, presidential candidates made a final push to energise voters in the western United States.

At rallies, Vice President Kamala Harris warned supporters that abortion rights are under threat. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump focused his campaign on immigration and border control.

What are the latest updates from the polls?

Recent polls from AtlasIntel, released on Thursday, show Trump holding a slight lead of one to two percentage points over his opponent. However, a separate poll from TIPP Insights indicates that the candidates are currently tied.

A recent survey by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals that about 70 percent of Americans feel anxious or frustrated regarding the election, with few expressing  enthusiasm.

Both Democrats and Republicans share these sentiments, but Democrats report higher levels of anxiety: 80 percent of Democrats and 77 percent of Republicans express interest in the campaign, while only 54 percent of independents feel similarly. Furthermore, 79 percent of Democrats report feeling anxious, compared with 66 percent of Republicans.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s National Polls tracker, Harris maintains a narrow national lead of about 1.2 points as of Thursday. However, this lead has gradually decreased and falls within the margin of error, indicating a highly competitive race.

In critical swing states, which could determine the election outcome, the competition is even tighter.

Key battleground states include Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. FiveThirtyEight’s daily poll tracker indicates that Harris’s lead in Michigan remains slight, at approximately 0.8 points. However, she has lost her lead in Nevada, where Trump now leads by 0.3 points.

In Wisconsin, her lead has dropped to 0.6 points, down from 0.8 points on Wednesday.

On the other hand, Trump’s advantage in Pennsylvania has increased slightly, rising from 0.4 points to 0.7 points. His lead in North Carolina has returned to last week’s levels, now at 1.4 points. Trump is also gaining ground in Arizona, where he leads Harris by 2.4 points, and in Georgia, where his advantage is 1.8 points.

What was Kamala Harris up to on Thursday?

The Harris campaign has zeroed in on what Trump said last night at a campaign rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, where he told an anecdote about telling his team that he intends “to protect the women of our country”.

“I’m gonna do it whether the women like it or not,” Trump said.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Harris slammed the remarks as “offensive”.

“It actually is, I think, very offensive to women in terms of not understanding their agency, their authority, their right and their ability to make decisions about their own lives, including their own bodies,” Harris said before embarking on a day of campaigning in the Western battleground states of Arizona and Nevada.

In Phoenix, Mexican American band Los Tigres del Norte kicked off Harris’s rally with a song expressing a desire to eliminate the border and unite the two countries. Founded in the 1960s, the band has a deep resonance on both sides of the border and continues to captivate generations of devoted fans.

Phoenix—join us today.https://t.co/JiWw1z9czB

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 31, 2024

In Phoenix, her speech was interrupted by pro-Palestinian protesters in the first 10 minutes.

Harris paused briefly to acknowledge them. “Hey guys, you know what? Here’s the thing – let’s talk for a moment about Gaza,” she said. “We all want this war to end and get the hostages out, and I will work on it full-time when I am elected president, as I’ve been.”

Harris also contrasted her willingness to engage with those who disagree with her against Trump’s remarks about jailing his opponents. This was mentioned as several protesters were being escorted out, and she said: “Democracy can be complicated sometimes. It’s OK. We’re fighting for the right for people to be heard and not jailed because they speak their mind.″

Since winning the Democratic nomination earlier this year, Harris has at times adopted a confrontational stance towards protesters.

When a group of protesters interrupted her at an August event by chanting, “Kamala, Kamala, you can’t hide, we won’t vote for genocide,” Harris responded directly: “If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”

On Thursday, during her final stop of the day in Las Vegas, Nevada, Jennifer Lopez also spoke, and there was a performance by the Mexican rock band Mana.

US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris walks on stage as she arrives for a rally in Reno, Nevada [AFP]

What was Donald Trump up to on Thursday?

At his first rally in New Mexico, Trump urged the crowd to vote for him, promising to solve the border issue. The state, with five Electoral College votes, is widely expected to vote for Harris.

“One of the reasons we will win this state is you have one of the worst border problems of any state, and I’m the only one who will fix it,” he said.

In Henderson, Nevada, Trump accused Harris of operating a lax border policy and promised a mass deportation programme if he is elected.

He began by demonising migrants, saying some are “horrible, deathly” people. He also called Harris “horrible, the worst there is”, while urging his supporters to vote early.

“We’ll fix it fast, and we’re going to have an America that’s bigger, better, bolder, richer, safer and stronger than ever before,” he added.

In Nevada, many of his supporters wore orange and yellow safety vests.

The fashion choice comes a day after Trump wore a similar ensemble to draw attention to recent comments by President Joe Biden that suggested his supporters were “garbage”.

Trump walks in front of his supporters during a rally at Albuquerque International Sunport, in Albuquerque, New Mexico [Brendan McDermid/Reuters]

Al Jazeera’s John Holman, who attended the rally, noted that while Trump concentrated on migration, the primary concern for voters in Nevada is the economy.

“Trump’s rally had a lot of talk about migration, but actually, the key issue here in Nevada for voters – according to polls – is the economy,” Holman said.

“This is the state with the highest unemployment in the US. It’s been hit hard with inflation. Gas prices, in particular, are high, and it’s a state that has never completely recovered from the pandemic,” Holman added.

During his rally, Trump also spoke about inflation, and “he briefly said that he was going to abolish a federal tax on tips,” Holman said.

Trump also spoke at Tucker Carlson’s live tour event in Glendale, Arizona.

Trump speaks during a rally in Henderson, Nevada [Mike Blake/Reuters]

What’s next for the Harris and Trump campaigns?

Harris heads to Wisconsin

Harris is heading to Wisconsin, where she is expected to hold an event in the Appleton area at approximately 23:00 GMT, followed by another in Milwaukee at about 02:00 GMT.

The Milwaukee rally and concert features performances by GloRilla, Flo Milli, MC Lyte, The Isley Brothers, DJ GEMINI GILLY.

Cardi B is also anticipated to make an appearance at her rally, joining a growing list of celebrities who have campaigned for her in the final days of the 2024 election.

President Joe Biden will travel to Philadelphia and, on Saturday, to his hometown of Scranton, both in Pennsylvania, where he will aim to energise voters in this key swing state.

Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz is expected to also campaign in the battleground state of Michigan.

Trump heads to Michigan and Wisconsin

Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Dearborn, Michigan – home to the largest Arab-majority population in the nation – on Friday, where he is expected to hold a rally at Macomb Community College in Warren at 20:30 GMT.

As the Arab American vote in Michigan has increased over the years, it has become a critical factor in major elections, such as Bernie Sanders’s primary victory in the state in 2016.

Consequently, Dearborn has drawn significant attention from national and international media during campaign season.

Trump is the first major 2024 candidate to visit the city.

Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, who served in the state legislature as a Democrat, has not endorsed any candidates, urging residents to “vote their conscience” instead.

Meanwhile, the Harris campaign is facing outrage after former President Bill Clinton – while campaigning for her – suggested that Zionism predates Islam and that Hamas “forces” Israel to kill Palestinian civilians.